So What Are They?
An artist’s depiction of UFOs, by IgorZh from Shutterstock
13 minutes (Excluding Linked Material)
“Logic!" said the Professor half to himself. "Why don't they teach logic at these schools? There are only three possibilities. Either your sister is telling lies, or she is mad, or she is telling the truth. You know she doesn't tell lies and it is obvious that she is not mad. For the moment then and unless any further evidence turns up, we must assume that she is telling the truth.”
-C.S. Lewis, The Chronicles of Narnia
Extraordinary aircraft have been flying in American airspace, and have interacted in very public ways with our military. The evidence for this assertion comes from the very credible pilot, Commander David Fravor, who both witnessed and pursued one of these craft off the Pacific coast in 2004, from the supporting testimony and footage from the same encounter, from technicians aboard the USS Nimitz, which was present at the encounter, from additional declassified fighter pilot footage in the same vein recording similar encounters off the East Coast, and from yet another recent military encounter at sea, this time with drone-like orbs. All of the video and audio linked and referenced below has been confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, and has been taken seriously by top news outlets, including the New York Times (which broke the David Fravor story) and the Washington Post. The aircraft in the Pacific encounter displayed speed that cannot even be approached by our fastest jets. The aircraft in the Atlantic encounter (the ‘Gimbal’ video) engaged in maneuvers that left the fighter pilots in an obvious state of awe. Something extraordinary is happening in our skies, and it cries out for an explanation.
It’s not my purpose here to evaluate the credibility of the pilots, technicians, and government officials who have made these assertions, or who authenticated this footage. I have made my own judgement about their credibility. I’m personally convinced that David Fravor and his colleagues are telling the truth, and that the other declassified video and audio below is not government propaganda. I invite my reader to make his or her own evaluation before proceeding to the argument offered in this post.
My purpose is to explore what logical explanations can be offered for that data, assuming it’s basically accurate, and I will show that it points in a definite direction. Below you’ll find some of the interviews, articles, and videos upon which I’m relying for the basic facts. It’s a lot of information to go through, and the argument in this post assumes that the reader has already familiarized himself with this information, finds it basically credible, and is now at the stage of trying to determine what could explain it.
MY SOURCES
Articles & Interviews
Cmdr. David Fravor Interview With Joe Rogan
CNN Interview With Cmdr. David Fravor
‘Tic Tac’ UFO Video: Q&A With Navy Pilot Chad Underwood (nymag.com)
Navy admits UFO videos are real, but would like to stop using ‘UFO’ - The Washington Post
Multiple Destroyers Were Swarmed By Mysterious 'Drones'
Additional Footage
New Video Raises More UFO Questions Ahead of Pentagon Report Release
New video from USS Omaha shows unknown aerial sphere vanishing into ocean
Drone Swarm Footage Without Commentary
MY ASSUMPTIONS
I don’t take at face value just any utterance by a government official. I put little stock in the videos by themselves, since videos can be faked. I have no philosophical or emotional commitment to the idea that UFOs/UAPs are extraterrestrial craft. If anything, I have always tended to regard such things as either the misidentification of aircraft and/or weather phenomena, or as a fun and creepy popular mythology generated by a post-religious society in the atomic age. At the same time, I am open-minded to anything that is not logically self-contradictory, or inherently impossible.
Yet one cannot simply disregard high-quality, first person eyewitness testimony. For me, this testimony is the the foundation upon which all the other evidence rests. Commander David Fravor and other pilots who’ve recently come forward, either to corroborate his story, or to relate other events along the same lines, are the logical linchpin of the whole affair.
Fravor is extremely believable. His credentials are impeccable, and his detailed account of the events of that day in 2004 has not changed over time. In interviews, he is able to quickly and naturally answer detailed questions about the events he witnessed, and to move seamlessly between discussion of those events, and minute explanations about the workings of our own fighter jets, and of their capabilities. That his sighting and pursuit of a craft (actually, two; one was under the water) took place in broad daylight, under observation of our most sophisticated military sensor technology, and with multiple eyewitnesses in the air and on the USS Nimitz, and that it also dovetails with other footage confirmed as authentic by the authorities, puts the basic facts beyond reasonable doubt — at least as far as I’m concerned. This is just the sort of evidence that we use in daily life, or in a courtroom, to establish credible information. Fravor has stuck to his facts, seems to have no axe to grind, and has pointedly resisted interpreting the facts that he reports, unless pressed. What does come across in his interviews is an almost child-like amazement at what he witnessed. The same wonder and shock can be heard on the audio tracks of several of the UAP videos above. The story Fravor tells, in combination with corroborating interviews, statements from members of AATIP (Advanced Aerospace Threat Identification Program,) and authenticated media along the same lines, has established the following about the phenomena in our skies:
THE PHENOMENA
Intelligently operated aircraft that do not appear to be ours have been observed over extended periods of time by multiple highly-qualified eyewitnesses in the United States military.
They range in size from the 737-sized “Tic Tac” craft, to smaller orbs that have been compared to drones, but which were encountered far off from land for extended periods.
All are quite fast. Some have been observed moving much, much faster than any of our known jets, covering distances of 40 miles or more in mere seconds.
Some have been observed performing maneuvers that would not be possible for any known jet or drone.
They have no visible sources of propulsion or exhaust, and move in ways that seem to defy known physics.
They’ve been observed both in the air and under the surface of the water. Multiple military witnesses have watched these craft plunging earthwards — apparently from space — only to stop suddenly, and hover.
They display intimate knowledge of our military’s procedures.
They show interest in and awareness of us, but evince no concern about being shot out of the sky.
Again, this is the basic data that has to be explained. If you doubt its veracity, then what follows will seem premature. In that case I urge you to go back and watch the linked videos, and read the articles and interviews, in order to form your own judgement. However, I challenge you to judge this information on its own merits, setting aside prejudice, and the fear of being thought credulous, to see where the truth leads.
WHAT FOLLOWS (IF POINTS 1-8 ARE CORRECT)
We should note here that facts and their interpretation are logically separable. Since Fravor is about the most credible witness I’ve ever seen, and since he’s clearly of sound mind, and too expert to confuse a fast moving, intelligently controlled craft (which he pursued) with a weather balloon or a cloud bank, I am forced to believe he’s reporting the facts as he witnessed them (however incredible they may seem.) His story was confirmed point-for-point by pilots Chad Underwood and Alex Dietrich, who were also present. When you add in the “Gimbal” video, the credibility of Dietrich, and the recent “drone swarm” videos with accompanying technician chatter, the eight points above seem beyond reasonable dispute. Rather than simply relying on the public version of the recent Senate briefing on UAPs (a report that does not seem to do proper justice to the testimonies of any of the pilots referenced above,) I would like to explore scenarios that can actually explain the facts above, and in a way that assumes that these fighter pilots provided basically accurate descriptions of what they all encountered. If they are telling the truth, what follows from it?
And the answer isn’t difficult. If Fravor, Underwood, and Dietrich’s testimony is true, then there aren’t many scenarios that fit all eight data points. Most can be eliminated immediately. If, after going through these options, only one scenario fits all the facts, then the reasonable course of action is to accept that scenario as the correct one.
Option 1: These UAPs are advanced, human-designed craft, which are so top-secret that neither experienced military pilots nor military technicians using the most advanced tracking technology can identify them.
In Favor: In the past, our military has developed secret jets that employed new technologies, and some of these have been misidentified as UFOs. Naturally, between government compartmentalization, and levels of secrecy within the military and intelligence establishments, it’s reasonable to suppose that some very advanced craft are currently in development. Perhaps the appearance of the Tic Tac at the exact point where it could be tracked by the USS Nimitz, and pursued by Navy and Marine Corps pilots, was actually a deliberate field test by some above-top-secret program.
Against: Whatever technology propels the Tic Tac differs in kind, not degree, from known systems of powered flight. The same appears to be true of the object in the Gimbal video, which rotates and moves into the wind at high speeds, to the incredulity of the pursuing fighter pilots. Fravor and others witnessed the Tic Tac changing directions instantly, defying inertia, and moving without the apparent need to generate thrust by pushing against something. These craft leave no propulsion trail, have no fins, wings, or aerodynamic attachments, and some travel at speeds that cannot even be approached by our fastest jets. Unlike any plane in existence, they do not drive themselves forward by expelling something behind them.
Now if such technology is in American hands, why have we been spending billions of dollars on the Joint Strike Fighters? Why are the Chinese working hard to develop jets to match ours? Why does NASA bother contracting with Space X, or other private companies? If America has technology like this, then our entire air and space industry is a kind of elaborate sham. The scientific community and the military-industrial complex have been left behind in an obsolete technological age, while some secretive group has jumped light years ahead. Since scientific advances don’t appear out of nowhere, we also have to posit a huge infrastructure of minds and industry surrounding these craft, and this must also be kept secret. And despite keeping this secret so carefully, we would have to believe that this same organization/nation/private institution also puts its craft in just the right places to be witnessed by credible pilots, and captured on video.
Conclusion: In order to justify the claim that these are human-designed craft, we must make two very special claims. First, that radically new technologies (and the theory behind them) have been discovered, but only by a small, secretive group. Second, that this group is powerful, well-funded, and so invisible that not even the Pentagon (who verified the videos) knows what they’ve been up to. But it is simply impossible to believe that an entirely new form of propulsion has been discovered, and is currently in use, while ordinary air and space technology plods along at a linear rate. It also makes no sense that a clandestine program like this would go out of its way to show off its accomplishments.
And surely a powerful cabal would also have the influence to prevent the leak of these videos, and the testimony of pilots like David Fravor. Since the Chinese are, at best, on par with us in military technology, these craft cannot belong to the Chinese. Moreover, China boasts about its scientific accomplishments in such areas as gene editing and quantum computing. If they’d jumped this far ahead of us in aircraft technology, and were violating our airspace with impunity, wouldn’t we be hearing about it? And what other human options are there? It isn’t reasonable to think that the Russians, or some eccentric billionaire, would develop such era-changing technology without then using it to alter the geo-political scene. In light of these considerations, we must conclude that these craft are not human-made.
Option 2: These craft come from some advanced civilization hidden somewhere on or within the Earth.
In Favor: Some of the craft have been observed under the surface of the water, or entering the water from the air.
Against: Though much of the ocean is still unknown, its deepest regions have been penetrated with submersibles, and these provide no evidence of any civilization. The deeper sections of the Earth’s crust are exceedingly hot, while its mantle and core are home to molten rock, and unlivable temperatures. Also, multiple military witnesses sighted the objects coming down from space.
Conclusion: There is no advanced civilization under the sea, or inside the Earth.
Option 3: The craft are a disguise for some class of incorporeal beings (gods, angels, demons, etc.)
In Favor: These craft display capabilities far beyond our own. The possibility that extraterrestrials or other non-terrestrials exist disturbs the faith of some Christians, which disturbance would presumably please demons. According to the Bible, angels can take corporeal form, so presumably fallen angels could manifest as physical craft. Likewise, if there are gods, they also presumably have the power to manifest as machines.
Against: We should not multiply entities without cause. Since the craft in question appear to be physical, have physical effects on the world (e.g. sometimes show up on radar, disturb the water, jam fighter pilots’ radios, etc.,) then all incorporeal explanations seem unwarranted. Catholic theologians have addressed the possibility of alien life, and have proposed ways to reconcile it with Christian Revelation. Non-terrestrial intelligent life may pose a theological difficulty for certain theological approaches, but its existence would not contradict any Christian dogma. Therefore, their mere appearance in the skies would not provide good reason for concluding that UFOs/UAPs are actually demons, or a trick of demons. Anyway, what would such demons be trying to accomplish by flying around? And how does the presence of non-terrestrial life contradict or undermine the Gospel? And while good angels could disguise themselves as spacecraft, this is not really consistent with any scriptural or traditional portrayal of their behavior. In short, the notion that UAPs/UFOs are incorporeal creatures doesn’t seem to be demanded by either the phenomena itself, or by Christian doctrine. (At least if we are restricting ourselves to the evidence under consideration here.)
Regarding gods, the term is too vague to be useful, since such beings could be corporal, spiritual, or some sort of intelligent energy-based beings. In any case, “gods” would presumably just be different, but more sophisticated forms of created life. (See below.)
Conclusion: There is no particular reason to think that these are angels, demons, or gods. We cannot disprove these assertions, but also have no positive reasons for adopting them.
Option 4: These craft are the product of a civilization not of this Earth (In other words, extraterrestrial.)
In Favor: Points 1-8 are all explained on this scenario. We know from experience and sound philosophy what machines are, and we know through history and by extrapolation what advanced technology might look like. Machines that perform tasks which we can observe and measure to some extent, but cannot imitate, and which are analogous to technologies with which we’re familiar, are consistent with a civilization far in advance of our own . Enough technological progress has been made within human history that we can see a clear analogy between our advancement over the Stone Age, and the advancements of these crafts over ours.
Against: It’s CRAZY to believe the Earth is being visited by non-terrestrial entities, so there has to be some other explanation!
Conclusion: No, there doesn’t have to be another explanation. This one is uncomfortable. That doesn’t make it false. We’ve already explored the other scenarios, and they do not work. If the various expert witnesses are accurately reporting the facts, then craft matching the criteria listed in points 1-8 are indeed flying around in our airspace. If they are neither terrestrial, nor spiritual/incorporeal beings, then they must be the products of a non-terrestrial civilization.
If this conclusion seems unacceptable to you, then go back and question the initial premises. However, if Fravor and the others are neither lying, nor incompetent, nor of unsound mind, then the non-terrestrial result follows. Reason requires that if the facts above are correct, the correct conclusion must be the one that explains the data without omission or contradiction. If there is no intellectually honest way of denying the credibility of the witnesses, nor good reasons for doubting the basic accuracy of their account, then the non-terrestrial conclusion is the only viable option.
NON-TERRESTRIALS: WHAT KINDS COULD THERE BE?
Since non-terrestrial beings are not part of common human experience, we can only offer conjectures based on imaginative and logical extrapolation from what we do know. Even among these hypothetical entities, some are more likely than others.
1) Time Travelers: If it is possible to travel backwards in time, then it is possible that these craft are not from another planet, but from our own, at some far-future date. However, if you do not consider backward time travel to be ontologically possible, then you must conclude that they cannot be future humans. In my view, reverse time travel is impossible in principle (for reasons I won’t elaborate here.) Therefore, I conclude that these are not time-traveling future humans.
2) Extra-Dimensionals: If our universe contains regions or dimensions beyond our own, and if it is possible to cross the barriers between our world and these other worlds, then these craft might be from another dimension. However, even if there were extra-dimensionals, the phenomena observed give us no reason to posit them in this case. The pilots in question did not see crafts entering or leaving any sort of door in the universe, but rather moving through the physical mediums of sky and water, and descending from very high in the atmosphere. We have little independent, hard evidence that alternative dimensions actually exist within the created world, and any such evidence goes beyond the scope of the phenomena here considered. All such assertions within the current sciences are the products of speculative theories (Multiverse Theory, Superstring Theory, the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, etc.,) and are therefore only candidates for explanation if we first consider them to be credible at all. But many scientists do not believe in a Multiverse, Many World, and so on. Indeed, there is more direct evidence for aliens than there is for superstrings, or the multiverse.
3) Extraterrestrials: This possibility matches points 1-8, and requires positing the fewest additional entities/theories. We know that we are part of a vast universe, and that many stars have planets. We know that it is possible to travel through space. While the vast distances involved in interstellar space travel constitute a huge difficulty for this hypothesis, that difficulty does not seem fatal, as the general progress of human technology, and the limitations and contradictions of our current physics (which cannot currently reconcile the field forces, nor explain/understand dark matter and dark energy) suggests that our knowledge of the universe, and therefore our technology, may be relatively primitive. In any event, interstellar travel does not seem to be impossible in principle — though we obviously can’t do it.
As for how such beings could be reconciled with Christian Revelation, we suggest that such entities may not have fallen like our first parents. Even if some have, they may be bound by some sort of non-interference/observation only rule. For that matter, they might be here to contain us. All of this matches well with point # 8 above.
I should also note that the apparent genuineness of these modern, partially declassified encounters does not verify any and all such reports in the last sixty years. We might regard most of the latter as the product of popular imagination — perhaps the same impulse that accounts for stories of elves, trolls, brownies, etc., — while still taking these particular accounts seriously.
FINAL THOUGHTS
It is certainly uncomfortable to suggest that the Earth is being visited by non-human entities from some far-off planet. Such an admission makes one look credulous, and intellectually silly. It is far easier to ignore the rash of recent reports, to dismiss them out of hand as one would stories of Bigfoot. But there is a difference between being intellectually cautious and being rashly skeptical. The purpose of reason is to arrive at the truth, no matter what it may be. And truth is not a matter of ego. A man may appear smarter and more sophisticated by refusing to believe anything out of the ordinary, or by simply offering mundane alternatives without considering whether these really match the phenomena in question, but that does not make him wise. In the ninth chapter of John, the Pharisees engage in just this sort of false rationalism when attempting to refute Christ’s healing of a man born blind. Notice that they ask all the right questions of the man and his parents, but refuse to accept the answers. Their method is irrational skepticism masquerading as reason. After all, if the man and his parents are telling the truth, then it follows that Christ healed him. Not wanting to consider this ego-crushing possibility, the Pharisees simply poke holes, and cast aspersions on the formerly-blind man’s character.
Applying this to the case at hand, if we believe that these pilots and technicians are truthfully reporting what they encountered, are of sound mind, and are qualified to make the kinds of judgments that they have about the objects they encountered, then we ought to believe them. It is not reasonable to cast up an endless series of ad hoc objections, none of which really pertains to what the pilots say they witnessed first hand. And if what they saw is further supported by video evidence, this only lends credence to their testimony.
Even so, given the extraordinary nature of the reports, we might refrain from making a final judgement. It’s always possible that something was missed; some additional fact that casts everything in a different light. Despite my strong opinion that these witnesses are telling the truth, I find it very hard to “pull the trigger,” and to accept what seems to follow from their testimony. In the case of Christ’s miracles, reason was only sufficient to bring fair-minded people to the point of being willing to accept that they occurred. The gift of faith, of supernaturally-infused seeing, was needed to cross the threshold into actual belief. In the case of the natural-but-extraordinary, seeing for oneself may be the only thing which takes one over the psychological hurdle of ordinary incredulity into acceptance of the phenomenon in question. I’ve never seen a UFO, nor have I generally taken anyone seriously who claimed to. And I find that while my reason points me firmly toward the authenticity of these particular encounters, my ego (my fear of being thought a fool), and the general haze of grownup incredulity, keeps me from fully embracing the direction of my thoughts.
Yet if neither reliable testimony from multiple sources, nor supporting audio and video, nor the careful consideration of the implications of the same are sufficient to move a person to form a conclusion, then what is? Just what would it take to really convince me that these encounters are real? I’m not sure I know the answer to that question. Maybe I’m afraid to find out.
© 2021 Joseph Breslin All Rights Reserved